RBI Interest Rate Decision, Falling Crude and More - Pre Market Analysis


Here are some of the major updates that could move the markets today:


Vedanta said it is considering raising up to Rs 500 crore through debentures. Oil-to-metals conglomerate will raise the amount in one or more tranches.

Siemens has emerged as the lowest bidder for a project for manufacturing 1,200 electric locomotive of 9000 HP (horse power) worth over Rs 20,000 crore at Dahod in Gujarat. Indian Railways had floated the tender for manufacturing and maintenance of 9,000 HP electric locomotives at Dahod in April this year.

Vodafone Idea’s proposal to issue Rs 1,600-crore debentures to mobile tower vendor ATC Telecom Infrastructure has lapsed in absence of any response from the government on the conversion of interest dues into equity.

Bikaji Foods International has reported a 43.5 per cent year-on-year growth in consolidated profit after tax of Rs 40.92 crore. Revenue for the quarter grew by 32 per cent to Rs 577 crore compared to the year-ago period.

Craftsman Automation divested its entire 5.48 per cent stake or 11,56,808 shares at an average price of Rs 3,200 in the engineering company for Rs 370 crore through an open market transaction, according to the bulk deal data available with the BSE.

What to Expect?  

NIFTY opened with a gap-down at 18,629 and had a consolidating range-bound day. The index closed at 18,643, down by 58 points or 0.31%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-down at 43,173 and moved slowly in a down-trending channel. BNF closed at 43,139, down by 194 points or 0.45%. 

IT closed 1.45% lower.

The US markets continued the down-move and the European markets closed in the red.

The Asian markets are trading lower.

The U.S. Futures and European futures are trading slightly in the green.

SGX NIFTY is trading at 18,725 indicating a gap-down opening.

NIFTY has supports at 18,600, 18,675, 18,600 and 18,550. We can expect resistances at 18,650, 18,730, 18,780 and 18,850.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 43,000, 42,880 and 42,600. Resistances are at 43,200, 43,350 and 43,500.

FINNIFTY has supports at 19,200, 19,170 and 19,090. Resistances are at 19,280, 19,320, 19,370, 19,430 and 19,480.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 19,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,600. 

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 43,200. The highest put OI build-up is at 43,000. 

Foreign Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 650 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors also net-sold shares worth 550 crores.

INDIA VIX is at 14.

Looking at the global markets, DOW JONES has broken the previous swing point around 33,600. Meta was asked by the EU not to ask users to agree to personalised ads experience and this led to 6% fall in the heavyweight. The index will have to come above 34K to boost the sentiments. 

RBI interest rate decision will be out today at 10 AM. We are expecting a 25-35 basis points, probably 35 bps, and we have discussed the reason in the previous days. Inflation is dropping and is now below 7. 

Follow the speech by Governor after the rate decision. This also can move the markets. Let us see if it is hawkish or dovish. The stance could be changed neutral.

Crude oil prices dropped below $80 after a very long time and this is good for our markets. 

Our market is now at a VIX of 14 and the US markets are at 22. This has led to the drop in premium and volatility. However, we could see some big moves at 3 PM. S&P VIX increased by nearly 7% yesterday. Though VIX is low in our market now, you may be able to see higher premium today considering the event and there will be drop just after the speech with IV crush.

It is very important for NIFTY to protect 18,600. Tomorrow will be very volatile with Gujarat election results coming out. Delhi Municipal election results are coming out now but they would not have an impact.

I will be closely watching 18,730 on the upside and 18,600 on the downside in NIFTY.

Follow us on the marketfeed app’s Signal section to get real-time updates from the market. All the best for the day!

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