Easter Holidays - Pre Market Analysis

Here are some of the major updates that could move the markets today:

Stocks

Tata Motors global wholesales in the fourth quarter, including Jaguar Land Rover, were at 3,61,361 units, higher by 8%, as compared to the same period last year.

Jindal Steel and Power said its promoter group companies, part of the Naveen Jindal Group, have fully repaid the loan against shares.

Titan saw a healthy double-digit growth across its key businesses, reporting a revenue growth of 25% year-on-year for the March quarter. The growth was aided by strong showings from watches & wearables and emerging business segments.

Rail Vikas Nigam in consortium with Siemens India is the lead partner with 60% share & RVNL as consortium partner with 40% share.

Adani Total Gas Limited has reduced the price of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) by Rs 8.13 per kg and that of piped natural gas (PNG) by Rs 5.06 per standard cubic metre (scm).

What to Expect Today?

NIFTY opened with a gap-down on Thursday at 17,535, consolidated for a while and gave a big breakout on the news that the interest rate is going to stay the same. The index continued the up-move but 1 PM selling took the market down. NIFTY took support at 17,550 and closed at 17,599, up by 42 points or 0.24%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a small gap-down at 40,950. There was a big up-move. Resistance was taken below 41,300 and the index consolidated above 41,000. There was a down-move in the noon but BNF could close above 41K, at 41,041, up by 42 points or 0.1%.

IT closed 0.7% lower following NASDAQ.

The US markets closed in the green on Thursday. The European markets performed better. DAX and FTSE will remain closed today on account of Easter.

The Asian markets are trading higher except for the Chinese markets. Hong Kong remains closed.

The U.S. Futures are trading flat.

SGX NIFTY is trading at 17,705.

All the factors combined indicate a flat opening.

NIFTY has supports at 17,550, 17,520, 17,480 and  17,425. We can expect resistances at 17,610, 17,640 and 17,750.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 40,950, 40,800 and 40,600.  Resistances are at 41,100, 41,210 and 41,560.

FINNIFTY has supports at 18,340, 18,300 and 18,200. Resistances are at 18,510, 18,680 and 18,740.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 17,600. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,500.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 41,200. The highest put OI build-up is at 41,000.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,300. This excludes the far OTM strikes in Fin Nifty.

INDIA VIX dropped to 11.8.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 500 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth 1,000 crores.

As we discussed yesterday in the Dalal Street article, the weekly candle is another green candle as a follow-up to the strong green candle we had the previous week. If you look at the weekly chart, the index is at a resistance, the close of February last week. The day-chart offers a good resistance level at 17,750. This level has to be crossed for the bulls to gain strength.

FIIs continued their buying streak though DIIs turned net sellers. FII inflow will be good for our market to stay around this zone or perhaps break 17,750 to attempt a mid-term reversal in the trend.

It was the RBI event on Thursday. The interest rate was not hiked and it was a surprise to the market participants who were expecting a 25 basis points hike. RBI also revised the growth to 6.5% from 6.4% for the current fiscal. Inflation was projected at 5.2%.

The US Jobs data came in line with expectations. 

Since it is a holiday in Europe, we do not have cues in the second half. Will there be a reduction in the volume from the side of the FIIs? In case the volume by the big players is low, then there can be more volatility.

Note that the crude oil prices are above $85 now after the spike we saw last week. This is not good for our market.

A pull-back is expected since our market rallied for the last few days. It can be good for a sustained rally as well. But the candles should be small or it can go into the hands of bears.

I will watch 17,500 on the downside in NIFTY. 17,750 can be watched on the upside.

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