Dalal Street Week Ahead: Nifty Analysis For June Third Week

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a small gap-up at 18,633 on Monday and consolidated like the previous weeks. There was a rally on Tuesday that took Nifty above 18,700. Wednesday saw a gap-up and a quick gap-filling. A rally followed and 18,770 was touched. There was a huge fall on Thursday. NIFTY opened with a gap-up on Friday and rallied heavily with the help of short covering from 18,770. NIFTY closed at 18,826, up by 263 points or 1.41%.

BANK NIFTY opened almost flat at 44,060 on Monday and had a bearish consolidation. Tuesday and Wednesday were consolidating days. Thursday saw a huge fall. BN recovered the major part of the fall on Friday. 43,400 was the low of the week. BN closed at 43,938, down by 51 points or 0.12%.

IT closed 0.82% higher.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 6,500 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 1,500 crores.

It was a very strong week for the global markets. The US markets closed well in the green. Look at NASDAQ! It is 3.5% up WoW. 

NIKKEI moved up by more than 4%! The Chinese markets also had a great week.

India’s Consumer Price Inflation data came out at 4.25% as expected. This is a 25-month low. Inflation has dropped by 2.3% since January. At the same time, note that it is 44 months since inflation came out below 4% and we will have to wait longer.

Wholesale Price Inflation came out at negative 3.5%. It is a contraction in the figure much more than expected.

Fed decision was the highlight of the week. It was a pause as most experts were expecting on grounds of falling inflation. The Fed officials said that there could be two more hikes coming up by the end of the year.

US inflation eased to 4% as expected. 

SGX Nifty is at 18,900.

INDIA VIX is at 10.8.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 18,810, 18,770 and 18,710. We can expect resistances at 18,865, 18,900 and 19,000.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 43,680, 43,430 and 43,265. Resistances are at 44,000, 44,100, 44,170 and 44,280.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 19,400, 19,320 and 19,240. We can expect resistances at 19,500, 19,540 and 19,600.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,800. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,700. PCR is 1.2.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 44,000. The highest put OI build-up also is at 44,000. PCR is 0.9.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 19,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 19,400. PCR is 1.1.

The weekly candle changed all the way from red to green in a matter of 6 hours on Friday. It was a huge rally and thus, we were able to cast some positivity for the coming week though not as much as the global markets. 

Our markets were able to move up despite no support from the global markets earlier. So, it is fine if Nifty underperforms as long as the swing points are protected in the Day-chart.

Major events of the week:

Monday
US Holiday on account of Juneteenth day

Tuesday

Germany PPI

Wednesday

UK CPI

Thursday

China and Hang Seng holiday

BOE Meeting minutes

Fed Offical Mester speech

Friday
China and Hang Seng holiday

UK Retail sales

EU Manufacturing PMI

Fed Official Bullard Speech

US Manufacturing PMI

I will watch 18,770 on the downside in NIFTY. 18,900 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!