Dalal Street Week Ahead: Nifty Analysis For July First Week

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a small gap-up at 18,694 and took multiple bounces off 18,650. The level was watched closely on Tuesday but NF opened with a gap-up and rallied. There was a follow-up move on Wednesday and NF hit a new all-time high. Thursday was a holiday on account of Eid and NF continued the up-move on Friday. Nifty closed at 19,189, up by 524 points or 2.8%.

BANK NIFTY opened at 43,730 and rallied on Tuesday after a consolidating Monday. BN continued the up-move on Wednesday and Friday. 44,500 was skipped with a gap-up on Friday and there was another 200+ points rally. BN closed at 44,747, up by 1124 points or 2.6%.

FIN NIFTY opened flat and consolidated above 19,450. The rally on Tuesday took FIN NIFTY near 19,800. The rally continued for the next two days and the index crossed 20K. FIN NIFTY closed at 20,058, up by 543 points or 2.8%.

IT moved up by 3.5%.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 20,000 cr last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 1,500 crores.

The global markets had a positive week overall. The US markets moved up by more than 2% and the European markets also rallied. The Asian markets ended mixed but most of the indices closed in the green.

There were no major events last week.

SGX Nifty is at 19,280.

INDIA VIX is at 10.8.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 19,000, 18,850 and 18,770. We can expect resistances at 19,200 and 19,300.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 44,500, 44,300 and 44,170. Resistances are at 44,800 and 45,000.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 20,000, 19,950 and 19,880. We can expect resistances at 20,100 and 20,200.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 19,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 19,000. PCR is 1.6.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 45,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 44,500. PCR is 1.5.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 20,100. The highest put OI build-up is at 20,000. PCR is 1.5.

It was a short week for our markets. There was a strong rally from 18,650, the support on Monday. All major indices hit all-time high!

It was alright to think that profit booking could take place on Friday. It usually happens after a new all-time high but the market rallied on Friday.

Major events of the week:

Monday
Wall Street early close on account of Independence day

India Manufacturing PMI

US Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday

US Holiday

Wednesday

EU, Germany, UK PMI

Fed Meeting Minutes

Thursday

US Services PMI 

Friday
Germany Industrial Production

Jobs Data

Lagarde Speech

I will watch 19,000 on the downside in NIFTY. 19,200 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!