Bearish Monthly Expiry! - Post-Market Analysis

NIFTY started the day at 19,375 with a gap-up of 28 points. Right after opening, the index fell nearly 65 points to 19,320 levels and moved back up 70 points till the day’s high (making a double-top near 19,390 levels). Then, Nifty fell 160 points to 19,240 levels (making higher lows). In between, the index tried to hold 19,300 support zones, but the selling continued. Nifty closed at 19,253, down by 93 points or 0.48%.

BANK NIFTY (BNF) started the day at 44,265 with a small gap-up of 33 points. After the initial volatility, it took resistance from 44,400 levels and fell nearly 500 points to 43,900 levels. In between, the index tried to take support from 44,000 round levels, but the selling continued. BNF closed at 43,989, down by 243 points or 0.55%.

All indices except Nifty Realty (+0.65%) and Nifty IT (+0.2%) closed flat-to-red. Nifty PSU Bank (-1.33%) fell the most.

Major Asian markets closed mixed. European markets are currently trading flat-to-green.

Today’s Moves

Maruti Suzuki (+2.12%) was NIFTY50’s top gainer. The stock hit a record high of ₹10,065 today.

NCC (+10.2%) surged on the back of strong volumes.

Jio Financial Services (+0.97%) will be removed from BSE indices tomorrow (Sept 1).

Adani Ent (-3.73%) was NIFTY50’s top loser. The Organised Crime & Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) has alleged that millions of dollars were invested in publicly traded Adani Group stocks through Mauritius-based "opaque" investment funds by partners of the promoter family. The Adani Group has denied the allegations.

Medplus Health (-8.94%) fell sharply after 12.85% equity in the company changed hands in a large deal.

Markets Ahead

Markets are at important lows now: Nifty is holding near 19,240 levels and Bank Nifty is also under selling pressure. As mentioned in yesterday’s post-market analysis, 19,240 levels in Nifty and 44,000 levels in BNF were achieved today.

Nifty: The index is at a crucial support level of 19,240. If this level is breached, Nifty can give a sharp fall to 19,100 and 18,900 levels. The immediate resistance is 19,300 and 19,350 zones (the earlier supports will now act as resistance). Markets are on a sell-on-rise trend, so wait for confirmation for an upward move.

Bank Nifty: The index closed below 44,000. If today’s low of 43,900 is breached, the first target of 43,750 could be achieved and second target will be at 43,600. The major resistance to watch out for in BNF will be 44,000 and 44,200 levels. So wait for these levels to be crossed for a reversal (the index can be sold on upticks till then).

Being expiry today, option sellers were finding it difficult to take positions due to low premiums. But even though it was a bearish day, the markets were falling gradually throughout, implied volatility (IV) was not spiking, and premiums were moving slowly— all favourable for option sellers.

How was expiry day trading? Are you in net profit or loss this month? Let us know in the comments section of the marketfeed app.

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