Weak Global Cues; Close Above or Below 18K? Pre Market Analysis

Here are some of the major updates that could move the markets today:

Stocks

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services reported over 55 per cent decline in its net profit at Rs 492 crore in the quarter ended September 2022.

Adani Transmission reported a 32 per cent dip in its consolidated net profit at Rs 194 crore in September quarter compared to year ago, mainly due to adverse forex movement adjustment.

Dalmia Bharat reported a 76.84 per cent decline in consolidated net profit at Rs 47 crore for the quarter ended September.

MTAR Technologies has recorded a 30 per cent rise in the consolidated profit at Rs 24.7 crore for the quarter ended September FY23, driven by top line. Revenue jumped 38.2 perc ent to Rs 126.2 crore compared to the year-ago period.

JK Paper reported more than two-fold increase in consolidated net profit at Rs 326.93 crore in the second quarter of FY23, helped by higher sales volume and enhanced sales realization. The company had logged a net profit of Rs 118.38 crore in the July-September period a year ago.

What to Expect? 

NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 18,178 and moved down steadily. NIFTY closed at 18,083, down by 63 points or 0.34%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 41,474 and moved down following the general trend. However, 41K was not broken and the index closed at 41,147, down by143 points or 0.35%.

IT moved down by 0.43%.

The US markets fell heavily yesterday and and the European markets closed in the red.

The Asian markets are trading lower. NIKKEI remains closed.

The U.S. Futures and the European futures are trading flat to green.

SGX NIFTY is trading at 18,000 indicating a gap-down opening.

NIFTY has supports at 18,000, 17,955 and 17,900. We can expect resistances at 18,050, 18,100 and 18,175.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 41,000 and 40,850 and 40,500. Resistances are at 41,350, 41,500, 41,700 and 41,840.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,400. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,000. 

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 41,500 and the largest put OI build-up is at 41,000.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 1,400 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth 1,400 crores.

INDIA VIX is at 16.7.

Fed interest rate decision came out yesterday. It is a 75 basis points as expected. Hope you remember what the last Fed minutes spoke about. Powell reiterated it, saying hikes are inevitable and this will continue as long as inflation comes back to 2%. At the same time, he hinted that the size could be smaller next time.

Though we had a sell-off yesterday, the intensity was low and also, FII data looks very supportive. They were net buyers yesterday as well. Protecting 18K is very important for the bulls to take the game forward.

We have RBI interest rate decision at 10 AM. The press conference post the decision will be more important. It is expected that the event will not disturb the market situation.

Premium decay was very less yesterday because of events. Though the Fed event is over, we have RBI event and decay will happen in a big way after the event only with IV crush.

The day-candle of DOW looks very weak. It has been a good up-move but yesterday’s candle looks like a reversal candle. Let us wait to see if the market can recover tonight. The global cues look weak today. But we have to wait for the market-specific investor sentiments here as well.

18,000 is a major level and if that is broken, there are chances for higher fall. Will the level be skipped with a gap-down? 41K in BNF is a major point but it looks like it will be taken out today. We will have to see if there is buying on dip.

I will be closely watching 17,950 on the downside and 18,050 on the upside.

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