US GDP Contracts; Get Ready for the Monthly Expiry Volatility! Share Market Today

Here are some of the major updates that could move the markets today:

Stocks

Wonderla Holidays has signed agreement with the Government of Odisha for leasing about 50 acres of land for the development of an amusement park project in Bhubaneswar, Odisha.

Infosys has agreed with The House Fund III, LP, a Venture Capital (VC) fund based out of the US, for investment of $10 million. The investment is expected to be completed by June 30 this year. This is a minority holding and is not exceeding 20 percent of the fund size.

GR Infraprojects has completed development of Purvanchal Expressway (Package-VII) from Mojrapur to Bijaura in Uttar Pradesh on EPC basis. The completion certificate has been issued by the Independent Engineer on June 28 and has declared the project fit for entry into commercial operation with effect from March 7, 2022

Minda Industries has acquired 4,48,162 equity shares or 5.24 percent stake in German-based FRIWO AG, by investing 14.99 million euro. The investment has been made in the aforesaid company, after obtaining the requisite approvals including Reserve Bank of India under Overseas Direct Investment (ODI) guidelines.

Bharat Road Network has received Rs 94.11 crore from the purchaser against its equity exposure of Rs 112.16 crore in Shree Jagannath Expressways Private Limited (SJEPL), an associate of the company, after closing transaction by selling the entire 40 percent stake held in SJEPL.

What to Expect? 

NIFTY opened with a gap-down at 15,717 and moved higher leading to a trending day. There was a sell-off in the last hour after facing resistance at 15,850. The index closed at 15,799, down by 51 points or 0.32%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-down at 33,242 and consolidated with a slightly positive bias in the first half. But there was selling pressure and the index closed at 33,270, down by 373 points or 1.11%

IT moved down by 1.3%.

The US markets closed flat to green and the European markets closed in the red with DAX falling much heavily than CAC.

The Asian markets are trading mixed with Japan and Taiwan trading lower while Chinese markets are trading higher. The U.S. Futures and the European futures are trading lower, by around 0.3%.

SGX NIFTY is trading at 15,740 indicating a gap-down opening.

NIFTY has supports at 15,750, 15,700 and 15,630. We can expect resistances at 15,780, 15,860, 15,930 and 16,000.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 33,300, 33,000 and 32,600. Resistances are at 33,400, 33,500 and 33,750.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 16,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 15,500.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 34,000 and the largest put OI build-up is at 33,000.

Foreign Institutional Investors net sold shares worth Rs 850 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net bought shares worth Rs 850 crores balancing the FIIs.

INDIA VIX is at 21.9.

The US GDP data was the highlight yesterday. The positions were vulnerable to overnight volatility in the US markets. But the GDP data came out in line with the expectations, though slightly lower. The estimated rate was -1.5% whereas the data came out at -1.6%. The negative growth is a significant indicator of recession. However, the markets did not react. Let us see if there is a reaction in the US markets today. 

Jerome Powell, speaking at the annual ECB forum said that there is a high chance for a slowdown with the interest rate hikes but there is no choice as persistent inflation is a bigger issue. The European counterparts also highlighted inflation and this led to negativity. For the US markets, this is the largest first-half drop since 1970!

Germany released the CPI inflation data. The figure has eased from 8.7% to 8.2%. This is a good sign though we have more critical data pointing at recession. UK will release their GDP data today. Looking at the Chinese markets, the positivity is due to the first expansion in factory activity in four months along with the relaxation of COVID restrictions.

I hope you remember how NIFTY plunged before the US markets fell after the interest rate decision. We will have to be careful today, especially after the volatile expiry we had last week.

Reliance performed well yesterday. Watch the stock above 2,600. It is monthly expiry today and you can expect wild moves in the heavyweight stocks.

I will be closely watching 15,630 on the downside and 15,820 on the upside.

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