Dalal Street Week Ahead: Nifty Analysis For March First Week

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week flat at 17,966 on Monday. Bearishness was evident in the first two days but the fall came on Wednesday. The important level of 17,740, which was the support on 13th February was broken at the opening itself on Wednesday. 17,600  was broken and in a major blow to the bulls, the weekly close is below 17,600. NIFTY had another bearish day on Friday and the index closed at 17,466, down by 478 points or 2.67%.

BANK NIFTY opened flat at 41,176 on Monday. There was a down-move that ended at 41,665. The index consolidated in this zone on Tuesday. Wednesday saw major bearishness. The close on expiry day was at 40,000 helping the straddle players. However, BNF moved below 40K on Friday. The index ended the week at 39,909, down by 1222 points or 2.97%.

FIN NIFTY opened the week flat at 18,474. 18,250 offered support to the index on Monday and Tuesday. There was a huge fall on Wednesday and 18K was broken. Even 17,760 was reached on expiry day but there was immediate buying at that point. Bearishness continued on Friday and the index closed at 17,864, down by 570 points or 3.1%.

IT moved up by 1.7%.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 3,000 crores last week. Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 3,000 crores.

The US markets closed 3% lower. There was bearishness in the price action last week. The European markets closed more than 1.5% down. There was less bearishness in the Asian markets.

The weekly chart of NIFTY is disappointing to the bulls as the close is below 17,600. That was a major swing point. The last week of January saw the close at 17,600 and breaking this level points at the continuation of the trend that started in December. The next major level is at 17,085.

The US PMI data was strong. This increased fears of hiking rates and this led to negativity. Fed Minutes had nothing surprising to the market. RBI Governor said that the global economic outlook data has improved since the MPC meeting in December.

SGX Nifty is at 17,542.

INDIA VIX increased to 14.2.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 17,420 and 17,310 and 17,100. We can expect resistances at 17,480, 17,540 and 17,600.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 39,850, 39,600 and 39,400. Resistances are at 40,000, 40,200 and 40,350.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 17,835, 17,760 and 17,700. We can expect resistances at 17,930, 18,000 and 18,080.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 17,600. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,000.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 40,000. The highest put OI build-up also is at 40,000.

FINNIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,800.

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY

_

TUESDAY

India GDP data

Infrastructure output

WEDNESDAY

Britain Manufacturing PMI

US PMI
Germany CPI

THURSDAY

ECB MPC statement

FRIDAY
_

Auto Sales data will be out this week. Regarding GDP data, we are expecting slower growth this time due to weaker manufacturing and exports figure. It is expected at 5% YoY. But I don’t think the GDP numbers will have an impact on the markets.

There are speeches by Fed officials this week. See if there is any deviation in their statements.

Note that the 50-week EMA is at 17,450. Budget low is 17,353.

So, we saw a breakout on the upside when the budget high was broken. That was a fake move and the index reversed. Let us see if the budget low will be broken. If that happens, it can be disastrous.

We have an IPO this week: Divgi TorqTransfer Systems on 1st March.

I will watch 17,310 on the downside in NIFTY. 17,600 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!