Dalal Street Week Ahead: Nifty Analysis For January Final Week

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a small gap-up at 18,019. Monday was a down-trending day. Support was taken near 17,850 and the index rallied for the next two days. Expiry day saw a gap-down opening as there was global negativity and the index had a choppy day. Nifty fell on Friday to close the week at 18,028, up by 71 points or 0.4%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 42,625 and moved down on Monday. The index took support at 41,850 on Tuesday and moved higher. However, 42,500 acted as a strong resistance and the expiry was in a tight range. The index outperformed and consolidated on Friday. BNF ended the day at 42,507, up by 135 points or 0.3%.

IT moved up by 2%.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 2,500 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 3,500 crores.

Consolidation continues in our market. The week candle is a doji. The previous candle also was a doji. If you look at BNF, the doji has moderate bullishness though it can be ignored.

Looking at the global markets, the west saw weakness whereas the Asian markets closed in the green. However, NASDAQ moved higher.Our IT index might have got inspired from this up-move.

India’s Wholesale Price Inflation came out at a 22-month low, 4.95%.
Windfall taxes were further reduced and Reliance saw an up-move on Tuesday. But the stock is consolidating at a low. 

Germany inflation came out as expected at 8.9%.

HUL, ICICI Bank, Indusind Bank and Reliance announced results last week. HUL and ICICI results were better than estimates. Reliance missed estimates. 
Premium was slightly lower on Thursday as VIX has come down.

SGX Nifty is at 18,127.

INDIA VIX dropped to 13.8.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 18,000, 17,940 and 17,860. We can expect resistances at 18,165, 18,230 and 18,350.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 42,500, 42,250 and 42,000. Resistances are at 42,650, 42,720 and 43,000.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 18,700, 18,600 and 18,465. Resistances are at 18,850, 19,000 and 19,100.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,100. The highest put OI build-up also is at 18,100.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 42,500. The highest put OI build-up also is at 42,500.

FINNIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,900. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,700.

Keep the following in mind on the following days.

MONDAY

Chinese markets and Hong Kong holiday on account of Chinese New Year.

TUESDAY

Chinese markets and Hong Kong holiday on account of Chinese New Year.

British, Germany and US Manufacturing PMI 

WEDNESDAY

Chinese markets and Hong Kong holiday on account of Chinese New Year.

THURSDAY

Only China is on holiday on account of Chinese New Year.

US GDP

FRIDAY
Only China is on holiday on account of Chinese New Year.

The market is continuing to consolidate. We need a close outside 17,800-18,250 to get a trend. 

The week is truncated by the Republic day holiday. Expiry will fall on Wednesday.

The US markets are trying to recover. You can see a W breakout happening in the Dow Jones index. 

Corporate results will continue this week.

Monday: Axis Bank

Tuesday: Maruti Suzuki India

Friday: Bajaj Finance

I will watch 17,945 on the downside in NIFTY. 18,165 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!